June 1st 2025 Recession. Here is an updated assessment of recession probabilities (for 12 months ahead), including data through june 2024, and assuming no recession has arrived as of july 2024. The longest lag from 1st fed hike to recession is 42 months;
Here is an updated assessment of recession probabilities (for 12 months ahead), including data through june 2024, and assuming no recession has arrived as of july 2024. The longest lag from 1st fed hike to recession is 42 months;